andy bromage photo

Lamont tried out his new stump speech at the New Haven Lawn Club last week.

Ned Lamont walks briskly into the New Haven Lawn Club ballroom and is greeted by a fan as "Mr. Governor."

Lamont just flashes his boyish grin, shakes a few hands and changes the subject. Lamont hasn't said yet whether he's running for governor in 2010, a move that would dramatically reshape the Democratic chessboard. But the whisper campaign has grown deafening and I'd bet a Greenwich million on Lamont throwing his hat in the ring.

Take it to the bank: Ned Lamont is running for governor.

He may not be technically running, in the stage-managed press conference sort of way. That day may never come. Lamont may bail on the idea before spending a dime on party balloons or polling. But he's doing everything that a candidate running for office does at this stage of the game. Consider the evidence:

Exhibit A: Lamont's trying out a new stump speech (go to newhavenadvocate.com to see video), one that pitches universal health care, government reform — and slams Republican Gov. Jodi Rell for being too scared to even admit how far up shit's creek the state is. (For those keeping score, the two-year deficit is $8 billion, not the bogus $6 billion figure Rell pedaled for the first two months of the legislative session).

Exhibit B: Lamont's making the rounds to Democratic groups he'd need support from if launching another statewide campaign. Last week, he headlined two forums on health care — at the Lawn Club and a church in West Hartford — sponsored by Democracy For America, the liberal political action group founded by Howard Dean. Next week, he treks up to Windham to speak to their Democratic Town Committee, something candidates do when trolling for support and delegates.

Exhibit C: Lamont is apparently telling liberal bloggers he's going to run. Several informed the Advocate that Lamont told them as much.

Exhibit D: Lamont says he's frustrated with the lack of leadership in Hartford, and sees himself as a guy who "likes to get stuff done." That's why he'd consider running for governor, he says. "When you really fight your heart out for issues you care about, you don't just go back to putting satellite dishes on university rooftops," says Lamont, who founded Lamont Digital Systems, which provides cable TV services to college campuses.

If you ask Lamont point-blank whether he's running for governor, you'll get nothing. But ask him about the state's problems — and the solutions he'd proscribe — and you'll get a good idea of what a Lamont for Governor campaign might look like.

In fact, it looks a lot like the platform that rocketed Lamont from political nobody to political star in 2006, minus the Iraq war: universal health care, mass-transit investment and smart business development, to name a few.

Seated beneath a dozen framed political cartoons from the Senate race in his Greenwich office, Lamont says the state needs serious help.

The capitol's engaged in a game of "cat and mouse," Lamont says, where neither the Republican governor nor the Democrat-controlled legislature wants responsibility for the hard choices needed to balance the books.

"I would really hold the governor accountable," Lamont says. "That's her job."

What Rell should do, Lamont says, is act more like Obama: use the crisis to push a major reform agenda. Instead, Lamont says, Rell's response to a multibillion-dollar budget gap amounts to: Let's turn out the lights when we leave the office. Let's cut back on out-of-state travel. Let's keep the bars open a little longer at Foxwoods and see if the slot revenues pick up.

"This was our time, and this still is our time," Lamont says. "A governor over the next cycle or two, given the scale of the crisis confronting us fiscally and otherwise, can really bring people together to make some long term differences."

Lamont's second act faces one huge hurdle: no Joe Lieberman.

When Lamont's opponent was Lieberman, most loathed among Connecticut Democrats, "Ned Mania" swept the state and an army of volunteers and liberal bloggers rose up to go to war for him.

Now that Lamont's flirting with taking on Rell — who last week surpassed Sarah Palin as the most popular governor in the nation — several Ned-heads we spoke with are a lot more cautious. Not because they like Rell, but because they don't think Lamont could beat her.

"I don't think anyone in the progressive community thinks Lamont can win," says blogger Keith Crane of Branford, aka CTKeith, echoing the sentiment we heard from numerous Lamont supporters.

Others disagree. "Rell's poll numbers won't come down until someone can offer a better vision of the future for Connecticut than what Rell offers," says Tony Imbimbo of Danbury, who did phone-banking and canvassing for Lamont's Senate campaign. "Ned has the ability to do that."

Lamont would instantly bring four things to the race: a media spotlight, a huge volunteer base, potential credibility as a reformer/outsider, and loads of money (though it's hard to imagine the millionaire Lamont forgoing public financing and using his own fortune).

Rell is raising money through an exploratory committee but hasn't said whether she'll seek re-election. Three Democrats are already in the running: Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy, Secretary of the State Susan Bysiewicz and former House Speaker Jim Amann. Lamont would make four, and throw a left-hand monkey wrench into the race for the Democratic crown.

"I am a huge Ned Lamont for U.S. Senate supporter and have trouble rethinking that image," says Milford Democrat and blogger Tessa Marquis, "but I will probably drop every damn thing and every damn body like so many hot potatoes if Ned needs me in 2010."